Fed October 28 Decision and Bitcoin: Hike or Hold?

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The next big date on the crypto calendar has nothing to do with a token unlock or an ETF deadline. On Wednesday, October 28, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, closing out a two-day meeting that starts October 27. After a quarter-point hike in September and a run of hot inflation data, the question traders are asking is simple: does the Fed hike again, or does it hold?

As of Tuesday, October 20, markets are leaning heavily toward a hold. But bitcoin has spent the past week trading like a macro asset, swinging with Treasury yields, oil prices and tech stocks. This guide explains where the odds stand, why they moved so sharply in a month, how bitcoin has been behaving going into the meeting, and what a sensible plan looks like if you hold crypto through the announcement.

Where the October 28 Rate Odds Stand Right Now

Different markets are telling roughly the same story, with some variation:

CME FedWatch: futures pricing cited in an October 20 market digest put the chance of a hike at the October meeting at about 17%, while still implying a high probability (around 94%) of at least one more hike by December.
Prediction markets: an odds tracker snapshot taken on the afternoon of October 20 showed Kalshi and Polymarket pricing a quarter-point hike at roughly 12–13% and a hold at roughly 87–88%.

That is a dramatic shift. In late September, reporting based on CME data said the market had priced roughly a 70% chance of an October hike, before that fell below a coin flip. In mid-October, readings were still bouncing between the high teens and the 40s depending on the day and the data release. In other words, the “hold” consensus is fairly new, and it has already flipped more than once this autumn.

How We Got Here: The September Hike and Hot Inflation

To understand why a rate hike is even on the table in 2026, it helps to recap the year:

June: At Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair, the Fed held rates steady. Reporting at the time said nine of 19 officials saw at least one hike by the end of 2026, and the Fed projected year-end inflation around 3.6%.
Late August: At Jackson Hole, Warsh signaled the Fed would have more work to do if underlying inflation was not heading back to its 2% target, which pushed Treasury yields higher on hike expectations.
September 16: The Fed raised rates by a quarter point. Market coverage reported the new federal funds target range as 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since 2023. Interestingly, bitcoin reportedly rose about 13% in the period after that hike, a reminder that “rate hike = crypto crash” is not a reliable rule.
Mid-October: The September CPI report came in hotter than expected, with headline inflation reported at 3.7% year over year, and producer prices also beat forecasts. Bitcoin slid toward $80,000 on the news, as we covered in Bitcoin Falls Toward $80K After Hotter-Than-Expected September CPI.
October 16: Speaking at an IMF event in Bangkok, Warsh declined to pre-commit to any decision at the remaining 2026 meetings. Traders read that as a lack of urgency and scaled back October hike bets.

So the current setup is unusual: inflation is clearly above target, the Fed has already shown it is willing to hike, and yet the market expects a pause next week, with more tightening possibly pushed to the December 9 meeting.

How Bitcoin Is Trading Into the Meeting

Bitcoin has been range-bound and nervous. After briefly slipping below $80,000 last Thursday, it dipped to roughly $80,700 on Sunday, October 18, then bounced to around $82,500–$82,700 on Monday as Nasdaq futures recovered and China’s third-quarter GDP growth of 4.5% beat expectations. By Tuesday morning it had eased back to roughly $81,400 on Coinbase.

A few other data points worth knowing:

ETF flows turned positive Monday. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in a net $526.7 million on October 19, the largest daily inflow since September 22, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. That followed roughly $228 million of net outflows the prior week.
Derivatives traders are hedging. CoinDesk reported that the most-traded Deribit options on Monday were bitcoin puts below the spot price, and that the bounce was driven more by futures than by spot buying.
Macro pressure is building elsewhere. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Monday around 5.15%, and Brent crude briefly topped $111 early Tuesday amid unconfirmed reports of attacks on Saudi sites. Higher yields and energy prices both feed into the inflation picture the Fed is watching.
Analysts are watching $80,000. Several desks flagged it as near-term support, with QCP Capital warning that deleveraging in equities could test it.

The short version: bitcoin is sitting between a market that has priced in a pause and a bond market that is still pricing in a lot of inflation risk.

Three Scenarios for October 28 and Why They Matter for Crypto

We do not make price predictions, but it is useful to understand how markets typically interpret each outcome. Analysts quoted in recent coverage generally argue that a surprise hike would strengthen the dollar and push yields up, which tends to pressure risk assets including crypto in the short term, while a hold could leave bitcoin range-bound.

1. A hold with neutral language

This is what the market expects. Because it is already priced in, the reaction may be muted. The real signal would be in the statement and Warsh’s press conference: anything that sounds like “we’re done” would be read as dovish, while anything that keeps December firmly on the table would not.

2. A hold with hawkish guidance

A pause paired with clear signals that a December hike is likely would keep pressure on yields. Given that futures already imply a high chance of a hike by year-end, this may simply confirm current expectations rather than shock anyone.

3. A surprise hike

With prediction markets pricing this at only about one in eight, a hike would be a genuine surprise. Surprises are where volatility comes from, and with leveraged futures positioning and thin weekend liquidity a recurring theme this month, crypto would likely feel it quickly in either direction.

What This Means for You

If you are a long-term holder, a single Fed meeting should rarely change your plan. If you trade with leverage, it can wipe out a position in minutes. Here is a practical checklist for the week of October 26:

Check your leverage before Wednesday afternoon. Liquidation cascades usually happen in the minutes after the 2:00 p.m. ET statement and again during the 2:30 p.m. press conference. If you use futures, know exactly where your liquidation price is.
Don’t chase the first candle. Initial moves after Fed decisions frequently reverse once the press conference begins. Waiting 30–60 minutes costs little for most investors.
Use limit orders, not market orders. Spreads can widen sharply during volatile minutes, and market orders can fill far from the price you saw.
Stick to a schedule if you’re accumulating. If you are building a position over time, a fixed dollar-cost averaging plan removes the temptation to time a single meeting. Our free DCA calculator lets you see how a regular schedule would have played out across past volatility.
Keep long-term holdings off the exchange. Volatile days are also when exchanges see outages and withdrawal queues. Coins you don’t plan to trade belong in self-custody.
Remember the bigger picture. Even after the September hike, bitcoin moved higher for a time. Macro matters, but it is one input among many, including ETF flows and on-chain demand.

What to Watch Next

This week’s earnings: Tesla and Meta report after the close on Wednesday, October 21. Bitcoin has been trading closely with tech stocks, and the Nasdaq just had its worst week since June.
Treasury auctions and yields: A $13 billion 20-year bond auction is scheduled for Wednesday. Weak demand and higher yields would tighten financial conditions further.
Oil: With Brent above $110, energy prices could feed into the next inflation prints and the Fed’s December calculus.
ETF flows: Monday’s big inflow ended a run of outflows. Whether that holds into the meeting is a useful gauge of institutional appetite. For context on how bitcoin was positioned before the CPI report, see our earlier note, Bitcoin Steadies Near $84K Ahead of September CPI.
October 28, 2:00 p.m. ET: the statement, followed by Warsh’s press conference. Then the focus shifts to the final 2026 meeting on December 9.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the next Fed meeting in 2026?

The FOMC meets October 27–28, with the decision released at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28. The final meeting of 2026 is scheduled for December 9.

Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026?

Markets don’t think so. As of October 20, CME futures pricing implied roughly a 17% chance of a hike, and prediction markets priced it at around 12–13%. Those odds have changed quickly this autumn, so treat them as a snapshot, not a forecast.

How do Fed rate hikes affect bitcoin?

Higher rates tend to strengthen the dollar and raise yields on safer assets, which can reduce demand for risk assets like crypto. But the effect is not mechanical: markets react mostly to surprises, and bitcoin reportedly rose after the Fed’s September hike because that move had been widely expected.

What is the current federal funds rate?

Following the September 16 quarter-point hike, the target range was reported at 3.75%–4.00%. Check the Federal Reserve’s official statement after October 28 for any change.

Should I sell crypto before a Fed meeting?

That depends on your goals, time horizon and risk tolerance, and we can’t give personal advice. For many long-term investors, a consistent plan and reduced leverage matter more than trying to time a single announcement.

Fed Decision October 28: Hike or Hold? What the Rate Odds Mean for Bitcoin

Where the October 28 Rate Odds Stand Right Now

How We Got Here: The September Hike and Hot Inflation

How Bitcoin Is Trading Into the Meeting