Midterms and the CLARITY Act Explained

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Americans vote in the midterm elections on November 3, and the crypto industry has more riding on the result than almost any other single-issue group in the country. Crypto-linked political groups have poured well over $150 million into the races, and the bill they most want passed, the CLARITY Act, has been stuck in the Senate since a failed vote in September.

The results will not settle the question of US crypto rules on their own. They will, however, decide who writes the next draft, who chairs the committees that handle it, and how motivated lawmakers are to finish the job before January. Here is where things stand, what each outcome could mean, and what crypto holders can sensibly do in the meantime.

How the CLARITY Act got stuck

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633, passed the House on July 17, 2025 by a 294-134 vote, with 78 Democrats in favor. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its version 15-9 on May 14, 2026. The momentum ended on September 15, when a procedural vote to open floor debate failed 49-50, well short of the 60 votes required. According to a DLA Piper analysis, Republican Senators Susan Collins, Josh Hawley and Jerry Moran joined Democrats in voting no.

The core idea of the bill was not really what sank it. It would give the CFTC oversight of digital commodity spot markets, leave the SEC in charge of assets sold as investment contracts, and require exchanges, brokers and dealers to register, disclose risks and segregate customer funds. Reporting on the vote points to other disputes:

Ethics rules for officials. Democrats argued the provisions did too little to address crypto profits for senior officials, including assets tied to the president and his family. Critics also objected to the ethics language expiring on January 20, 2029, and to enforcement resting only with the Justice Department.
Stablecoin yield. Banks pushed back on interest-like rewards paid on stablecoins.
Illicit finance. Some Democrats and law enforcement groups said money laundering safeguards fell short.
State authority. A bipartisan group of 18 state attorneys general opposed the bill over fears it would preempt state registration and anti-fraud powers.

How much crypto has spent on the midterms

You will see several different totals, and they are measuring different things. A Reuters review of filings counted about $176 million spent across more than 100 races through October 20, roughly $150.8 million of it from Fairshake and its affiliates. CNBC’s October 31 report, citing Public Citizen, put crypto-tied contributions above $200 million. The first figure tracks money spent on races. The second tracks money donated. Neither is wrong, but they should not be added together.

The pattern of that money tells you more than the total does:

House: Fairshake is backing 33 candidates, 19 Republicans and 14 Democrats, so its House approach remains bipartisan.
Senate: After the September vote, Fairshake reportedly chose to back only Republicans in Senate contests.
Ohio: This is the marquee race. Republican Senator Jon Husted faces former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, a longtime crypto critic. Fairshake spent about $40 million against Brown in 2024 and says it has spent $55 million against him this cycle. A Marist poll from October 15-18 showed Brown ahead by 4 points, inside its 4.5-point margin of error.

Fairshake says 53 of the 58 candidates it backed in primaries and special elections this year won. That is a striking record, but it does not prove the money caused those wins, since well-funded groups often back candidates who were already likely to win.

The math that matters: 60 votes

This is the part that often gets lost in election coverage. The September vote finished 11 short of 60, and only about a third of Senate seats are on the ballot. Each seat that swaps a no for a yes moves the count by a single vote. Even an excellent night for crypto-backed candidates is very unlikely to close that gap alone.

The practical conclusion holds whichever party wins: any market structure bill that clears the Senate will almost certainly need votes from both parties. That makes the content of the ethics, illicit finance and state authority sections at least as important as the raw seat count. Spending can change who sits in the chamber, but it does not by itself resolve those disputes.

Three scenarios after November 3

Prediction markets leaned toward Democrats in late October, with one report citing Polymarket at about 90% for the House and 62% for the Senate as of October 27. Those odds move and are not forecasts we endorse, so it is more useful to think through the possibilities.

Democrats win one or both chambers

Committee chairs would change hands in January in any chamber that flips, including those that handle crypto market structure. CoinDesk has noted the common assumption that Democrats would be less eager to strike a deal this year if they gain power, since they could negotiate from a stronger position in 2027. Ethics language would likely become more central to any new draft.

Republicans hold both chambers

The current committee leadership would largely stay in place and could reintroduce a similar bill. The 60-vote threshold would still apply, though, so the same objections would need answers.

A lame-duck push, either way

Congress returns after the election for a session that typically runs from mid-November to late December. A motion to reconsider was entered after the September vote, which keeps another attempt procedurally possible. Rep. French Hill has said he still hopes for passage in this window. The administration sounds far less optimistic: at a CoinDesk event in September, White House adviser Patrick Witt and Treasury’s Luke Pettit both described the year-end odds as poor. Sen. Cynthia Lummis has reportedly gone further, calling the bill dead and warning the next realistic opening could be years away. That is her judgment, not a legal deadline.

If nothing passes by the time the new Congress is seated on January 3, 2027, the bill generally has to be reintroduced and go through the process again.

The fallback: regulators are already moving

Whatever happens in Congress, the near-term action is at the agencies. The SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets on August 18, which we broke down in our guide to the proposal. On September 17, the SEC launched a tokenized securities venue exemption, and the CFTC sent crypto market rules to the White House for review.

The catch is durability. Rules made by agencies can be challenged in court and rewritten by future leadership, and Witt himself acknowledged the legal exposure of acting without a statute behind them. That is why the industry keeps pushing for legislation even as regulators grow friendlier.

What this means for you

If you hold crypto rather than run a crypto company, the election is unlikely to change anything about your holdings this week. Bitcoin was trading near $78,000 on November 1, about 38% below its October 2025 record of $126,173, and the most immediate pressure has come from elsewhere, including the ETF outflows that followed the $6.3 billion Binance hack.

A short checklist for the weeks ahead:

Be skeptical of election-based price theories. Analysts disagree about whether midterms help or hurt Bitcoin, and they are working from only a handful of past cycles. If you buy on a schedule, our DCA calculator shows how that approach has played out without trying to time a headline.
Do not assume a federal safety net exists yet. The customer fund segregation and registration rules in the CLARITY Act are not law. Our exchange vs. hot wallet vs. cold wallet checker can help you decide what belongs where.
Keep your own records. Tax reporting moves ahead regardless of the market structure fight. Our year-end crypto tax guide covers what to gather.
Treat election-themed tokens and “policy win” airdrops with extra caution. Scammers tend to follow big news cycles, so verify anything through official channels before you connect a wallet.

What to watch next

The Ohio Senate result, the clearest test of crypto’s political spending. Close races may not be called on election night.
Control of the Senate Banking, Senate Agriculture and House Financial Services committees, which handle market structure.
Whether Senate leadership commits floor time in the lame-duck session, which also has to deal with spending bills and other unfinished business.
The White House review of the CFTC’s proposal and the next steps on the SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets.

Frequently asked questions

What is the CLARITY Act?

It is a US bill that would divide crypto oversight between the CFTC and the SEC and create a registration system for exchanges, brokers and dealers. The House passed it in July 2025, but it has not cleared the Senate.

Is the CLARITY Act dead?

Not formally. It failed a 49-50 procedural vote on September 15, 2026, and no new vote has been scheduled. Officials and lawmakers disagree on its chances, but it would generally need to be reintroduced if it is not enacted before the new Congress begins in January 2027.

How much has the crypto industry spent on the 2026 midterms?

Reuters counted about $176 million across more than 100 races through October 20. CNBC, citing Public Citizen, reported more than $200 million in contributions from crypto-tied groups. The figures use different methods.

Will the midterm results move the Bitcoin price?

Nobody can say reliably. Past midterm cycles are too few to establish a pattern, analysts read them in opposite ways, and other factors such as interest rates, ETF flows and security incidents have been driving the market recently.

The Midterms and the CLARITY Act: What November 3 Could Mean for US Crypto Rules

How the CLARITY Act got stuck

How much crypto has spent on the midterms

The math that matters: 60 votes